I recently referred to Andy Updegrove’s report on the responses. In the past few days, media reports and blog commentaries (too numerous to cite here) have speculated on the significance of the number of responses. Now, Rob Weir has blogged on an important point that many are overlooking. Here is an excerpt:

“… this is not ISO per-se. It is JTC1, a Joint Committee between ISO and the IEC… the critical number to look at is the count of Primary Countries of JTC1, the so-called P-Countries. There are only 30 P-Countries in JTC1… During the 5-month ballot, approval of OOXML will require that two-thirds of the voting P-Countries approve, as well as that no more than one-quarter of all votes cast are negative… with 16 P-Countries already expressing concerns about OOXML… If the vote were held today, OOXML would fail in JTC1…

“Do the math. One-third of 30 P-Countries is 10. Add 1 to get 11, the magic number. If 11 P-Countries vote against OOXML during the 5-month ballot, then OOXML will fail. If some countries abstain, then this magic number goes proportionately down. Since some NB’s [National Bodies] have a consensus voting procedure for determining their vote in JTC1, the lack of consensus could lead them to abstain from the 5-month ballot, just as it may have lead some NB’s to abstain from the contradiction ballot. So this magic number will likely be less than 11 because of these abstentions.”

Meanwhile, Andy Updegrove posted a clarification of his earlier post, after criticism that some of its contents were in error. Amongst other points, he notes that “JTC 1 made a mistake when they generated their first list, and reported that 19 countries had responded during the contradiction period… JTC 1… has now corrected its mistake and circulated a new list….it shows 20.”