FlashForward SF 2003 - Day 2: Tim O'Reilly Watches the Alpha Geeks

So what did you miss at FlashForward SF 2003 on Day 2?



The keynore featured Macromedia's Kevin Lynch discussing their vision for the Flash platform. Kevin and cohorts highlighted important touchpoints in Macromedia's strategy, including Macromedia Central, a dashboard-like interface to Flash content and other utilities. It featured offline content for those with intermittent connectivity, plus e-commerce to help stimulate an active developer community. Kevin also announced Flash Communication Server 1.5, featuring secure connectivity and RedHat Linux support. Tony Lopez of Macromedia discussed their web site's redesign and the lessons learned. Joe Tan of Vividence demonstrated the ability to track user interactivity across a Flash-enabled application or site to improve usability. Paul Gubbay of CyberSage described his company's RAD environment for Flash developers. Mike Chambers of Macromedia introduced DevNet Pro, a new subscription service that allows Macromedia developers to track their licenses, receive the latest upgrades, and obtain enhanced support. And Chris Thomas of Intel described the chip manufacturer's commitment to mobile computing and the new Centrino chip. Kevin concluded with a demonstration of Flash Player 6 for the Windows-based Pocket PC.



Following the keynote, our own Tim O'Reilly gave an important talk on "Watching the Alpha Geeks." Tim outlined the history and progression of technological cycles as follows:


1. Hackers create homebrewed solutions to interesting and challenging problems.


2. Entrepreneurs make things easier for ordinary users.


3. A few dominant players attempt to raise barriers to entry in order to monopolize the market.


More importantly, Tim outlined the conditions under which certain initiatives succeed or fail. For example, mp3.com preceded Napster, but it failed because it offered a centralized solution ("We have all the songs") to a problem better addressed by decentralization (it doesn't matter where the song is stored, so long as someone can find it by searching the network of peers). Furthermore, a platform strategy, like Microsoft Windows, will always beat an application strategy, like Netscape Navigator (I happen to disagree with Tim here. Netscape had a platform strategy in which Navigator was the platform to which plugins could be written. It failed because of Microsoft's anti-competitive tactics and a loss of vision to carry the strategy through.)


So how do you predict the future and avoid the mistakes of the past? Well, first, you watch the Alpha Geeks, of course. Although the desktop paradigm still dominates business thought, hackers already know that the shift from a server-centric to network-centric world is well underway. The web browser is not the end of the revolution. The future is in microcontent browsers like Sherlock, Watson, and Macromedia Central, devoid of intrusive chrome, accessing cooperating Web Services and web-facing databases. Web services like those offered by Amazon and Google are the software components of the future.


How can Macromedia and Flash developers avoid being relegated to a side canyon of history? How can they compete with Microsoft, even as the .NET initiative pauses if not stumbles? Macromedia has to continue to promote the platform against which others will develop. They must maintain and extend their lead in Rich Internet Application (RIA) development. The community can help by creating a critical mass of open source components. (Here, Tim encouraged the attendees to share their code more openly, not realizing that although Macromedia develops proprietary software, many developers freely share source code. Furthermore, Macromedia has opened the SWF format to public scrutiny, going to great lengths to promote it as a community standard and not just the de facto standard.)


Tim closed by admonishing participants to promote and adhere to open standards (citing Apache's success in being strict in what you transmit and liberal in what you accept as a key to long-term success). He also encouraged Macromedia to make it easier to imitate another developer's work by adding a "View Source" feature to Flash (common in HTML browsers). He says that Open Source is not about a software license, it is about lowering the barriers to entry and innovation in order to repel monopolists that would otherwise raise barriers and stifle innovation. In summary, Tim said:


1. Play well with others - build in interoperability.


2. Think "platform" not "application" - build in extensibility.


3. Think "network", think "open" - "value will be created in sofware above the level of a single device."


Following Tim's talk and numerous other excellent sessions, the day closed with a rollicking Flash Film Festival, featuring rubber arrow trophies and short acceptance speeches.

See Day 1 and Day 3 commentary, as well.

What are the Alpha Geeks telling us today?