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Jump the Shark

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Tim O'Reilly
Jan. 02, 2003 11:23 AM
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According to jumptheshark.com, "It is a moment. A defining moment when you know that your favorite television program has reached its peak. That instant that you know from now on...it's all downhill. Some call it the climax. We call it jumping the shark."

Apparently, the term comes from an episode in the fifth season of the TV sitcom Happy Days, when Fonzie went to Hollywood to become a movie star, and in the course of the episode, went waterskiing and jumped over a shark. Even though the show went on for many more years, Jon Hein, the creator of jumptheshark.com, thinks that the show started its long downhill slide at that moment. He's built a site chronicling when TV shows hit that defining moment (and letting his readers vote on same.) Apparently, the first sign of a show's doom is the spinoff..., and as the Amazon review notes, perhaps Hein's creation of a book means that his concept has itself jumped the shark. (And of course, as one wag noted, "you know something has jumped the shark when Bill Safire writes about it.") Or for that matter, when Tim O'Reilly hears about it :-) (The term has apparently been around for several years at least, but just got on my radar over the holidays, when one of my daughters used it.)

But seriously, this is a great concept, a tool for thinking that sheds new light on the stream of events going by, and on your own choices. I immediately wondered, "Has O'Reilly jumped the shark?" But we did the "spinoff" years ago, moving from being just a book publisher to being an online publisher and conference producer. And the years that followed were among our greatest successes. How about when we started publishing on Microsoft topics rather than just Unix and the Internet? (A lot of you howled about that one when we took that step back in the mid-90's, but now our Microsoft publishing program is one of our strongest areas, with the same kind of devoted readers as our Unix/Linux books.) How about our move into the consumer market this year, with David Pogue's Missing Manuals. After all, O'Reilly has always been a high-end computer book publisher "for geeks." Obviously, you don't know if you've jumped the shark till years afterwards, but right now, we look like we are still in the clear. The core O'Reilly brand remains clearly focused on the high end, and Pogue Press is making a darn good run at exercising the same dominance in the consumer market.

How about the overall quality of our books? As O'Reilly grows, we get more people making editorial choices, and not all those choices are as good as those that made us successful. So I want to ask you, my readers, where you think O'Reilly may have jumped the shark. Were there books, or positions on technology or policy issues, that made you think we'd lost our touch? It's worth worrying about these things.

I also think it would be great to hear where you think technologies have jumped the shark. Was the Parrot April Fool's joke Perl's high point? More seriously, did AOL's Instant Messenger (AIM) jump the shark when it shut down interoperability with AIMster, jabber, and other third-party IM apps? (Did they get back on track when they let iChat on board with them?) Did the web jump the shark when it allowed advertising popups? (That one would almost certainly get my vote.) Did Microsoft jump the shark when they forced everyone into annuity licensing this past year? (If Microsoft ever does go down, this may be their defining moment, the tipping point where enterprises got serious about looking at Linux.) Your thoughts welcome.

Tim O'Reilly is the founder and CEO of O'Reilly Media, Inc., thought by many to be the best computer book publisher in the world. In addition to Foo Camps ("Friends of O'Reilly" Camps, which gave rise to the "un-conference" movement), O'Reilly Media also hosts conferences on technology topics, including the Web 2.0 Summit, the Web 2.0 Expo, the O'Reilly Open Source Convention, the Gov 2.0 Summit, and the Gov 2.0 Expo. Tim's blog, the O'Reilly Radar, "watches the alpha geeks" to determine emerging technology trends, and serves as a platform for advocacy about issues of importance to the technical community. Tim's long-term vision for his company is to change the world by spreading the knowledge of innovators. In addition to O'Reilly Media, Tim is a founder of Safari Books Online, a pioneering subscription service for accessing books online, and O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures, an early-stage venture firm.

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