Jump the Shark
Tim O'Reilly
Jan. 02, 2003 11:23 AM
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According to jumptheshark.com, "It is a moment. A defining moment when you know that your favorite television program has reached its peak. That instant that you know from now on...it's all downhill. Some call it the climax. We call it jumping the shark."
Apparently, the term comes from an episode in the fifth season of the TV sitcom Happy Days, when Fonzie went to Hollywood to become a movie star, and in the course of the episode, went waterskiing and jumped over a shark. Even though the show went on for many more years, Jon Hein, the creator of jumptheshark.com, thinks that the show started its long downhill slide at that moment. He's built a site chronicling when TV shows hit that defining moment (and letting his readers vote on same.) Apparently, the first sign of a show's doom is the spinoff..., and as the Amazon review notes, perhaps Hein's creation of a book means that his concept has itself jumped the shark.
(And of course, as one wag noted, "you know something has jumped the shark when Bill Safire writes about it.") Or for that matter, when Tim O'Reilly hears about it :-) (The term has apparently been around for several years at least, but just got on my radar over the holidays, when one of my daughters used it.)
But seriously, this is a great concept, a tool for thinking that sheds new light on the stream of events going by, and on your own choices. I immediately wondered, "Has O'Reilly jumped the shark?" But we did the "spinoff" years ago, moving from being just a book publisher to being an online publisher and conference producer. And the years that followed were among our greatest successes. How about when we started publishing on Microsoft topics rather than just Unix and the Internet? (A lot of you howled about that one when we took that step back in the mid-90's, but now our Microsoft publishing program is one of our strongest areas, with the same kind of devoted readers as our Unix/Linux books.) How about our move into the consumer market this year, with David Pogue's Missing Manuals. After all, O'Reilly has always been a high-end computer book publisher "for geeks." Obviously, you don't know if you've jumped the shark till years afterwards, but right now, we look like we are still in the clear. The core O'Reilly brand remains clearly focused on the high end, and Pogue Press is making a darn good run at exercising the same dominance in the consumer market.
How about the overall quality of our books? As O'Reilly grows, we get more people making editorial choices, and not all those choices are as good as those that made us successful. So I want to ask you, my readers, where you think O'Reilly may have jumped the shark. Were there books, or positions on technology or policy issues, that made you think we'd lost our touch? It's worth worrying about these things.
I also think it would be great to hear where you think technologies have jumped the shark. Was the Parrot April Fool's joke Perl's high point? More seriously, did AOL's Instant Messenger (AIM) jump the shark when it shut down interoperability with AIMster, jabber, and other third-party IM apps? (Did they get back on track when they let iChat on board with them?) Did the web jump the shark when it allowed advertising popups? (That one would almost certainly get my vote.) Did Microsoft jump the shark when they forced everyone into annuity licensing this past year? (If Microsoft ever does go down, this may be their defining moment, the tipping point where enterprises got serious about looking at Linux.) Your thoughts welcome.
Tim O'Reilly
is the founder and CEO of O'Reilly Media, Inc., thought by many to be the best computer book publisher in the world. In addition to Foo Camps ("Friends of O'Reilly" Camps, which gave rise to the "un-conference" movement), O'Reilly Media also hosts conferences on technology topics, including the Web 2.0 Summit, the Web 2.0 Expo, the O'Reilly Open Source Convention, the Gov 2.0 Summit, and the Gov 2.0 Expo. Tim's blog, the O'Reilly Radar, "watches the alpha geeks" to determine emerging technology trends, and serves as a platform for advocacy about issues of importance to the technical community. Tim's long-term vision for his company is to change the world by spreading the knowledge of innovators. In addition to O'Reilly Media, Tim is a founder of Safari Books Online, a pioneering subscription service for accessing books online, and O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures, an early-stage venture firm.
Do you see "jump the shark" moments from O'Reilly or the technology industry that you'd like to share?
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Showing messages 1 through 28 of 28.
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Nitche markets and leadership
2003-10-01 12:38:17
anonymous2
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Not jumped yet!
2003-02-06 12:22:41
edfactor
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Stepped over the guppy anyway
2003-01-21 17:10:09
anonymous2
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A few bad books, mostly good ones
2003-01-16 21:01:55
anonymous2
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Less than spectacular
2003-01-12 20:12:08
anonymous2
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losing your cool
2003-01-12 15:34:47
doomvox
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There are a few cracks in the facade...
2003-01-05 01:03:07
anonymous2
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not until you retire, Tim
2003-01-03 11:52:41
mentata
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not until you retire, Tim
2003-01-04 08:15:20
austinblues
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"one wag" responds
2003-01-03 09:04:39
anonymous2
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The question is...
2003-01-03 08:44:34
anonymous2
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You evolved
2003-01-03 07:47:08
anonymous2
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the "money saying" is from swingers
2003-01-03 06:48:50
anonymous2
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O'Reilly Expansion and Shark Jumping
2003-01-03 03:29:28
anonymous2
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different kinds of jumping the shark
2003-01-03 02:05:59
anonymous2
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can we stop using that phrase ???
2003-01-02 16:35:55
anonymous2
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can we stop using that phrase ???
2003-01-02 16:51:09
Dunx
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Not yet
2003-01-02 14:19:26
gwadej
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Another take on "Jump the shark"
2003-01-02 13:55:01
anonymous2
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Even Homer nods
2003-01-02 12:36:27
anonymous2
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Even Homer nods
2003-01-03 13:49:36
arvedhs
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Tim is so tragically hip
2003-01-02 12:18:01
anonymous2
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Showing messages 1 through 28 of 28.
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(1) O'Reilley books used to be titled things like
"lex & yacc" where you might pick up the book
just to figure what it's about. Now there seems
to be an attempt to downplay the technical terms
e.g. there's no "mod_perl" book.
All of the wanna-be kids mindlessly, automatically
select what they want to be from the gurus.
Even nitche topics - academic subject, hardcore
subjects, hyper technical subjects - trickle
down. In some cases, it takes more than a few
years. OO was in the labs a generation before
it crept out, then it took a generation to
start using, and not until this generation
have we learned how to teach the subject so
that people get it. Functional programming
went through the same throws, but now
"Structure and Interpretation of Computer
Programs" is an ageless classic and a best
seller.
I won't ding ORA for catering to the Windows
crowd (even as I stand firmly outside of it).
As someone else mentioned, the despreation
of things like shark jumping comes from, well,
desperation - not having anything better to
fall back on. ORA's value is as a leader. If
ORA doesn't print hardcore, nitche, technical
books, then someone else will. I've been watching
MIT Press and the OpenCourseWare thing.
O'Reilly took risks on MacOSX (lots of product
releases have a buzz, but O'Reilly saw real
potential). O'Reilly took risks on Google as
a platform. And of course, back in the day, on
Perl. They've also taken risks on Python, which
has proven to be language well worthy of attention.
O'Reilly did not sit back and say "No one will
switch from Windows", "no one will drop Perl
for a younger but cleaner language", nor
"people can't buy Google, it isn't a real
product, therefore there is nothing to write
a book on".
Yes, this sort of thinking is risky. Tim described
O'Reilly's early history as having an element
of luck. Anyone can play it safe. Trying your
luck now and then, dispite flops, misdirection,
mispredicted trends, inadequate resources to
polish a book, and all of these nasties, is
what makes O'Reilly great.
I wonder why O'Reilly didn't pick up Damian
Conway's _Object Oriented Perl_?
I found this very interesting reguarding the
lack of truely hard-core books for Perl,
subjects getting a very glossed over treatment,
and outright downplaying of technical trends
so that Perl programmers don't have to worry
about them, and how closely some, but not all,
Perl programmers really resemble PHP
programmers with apathy for design:
http://perlmonks.com/index.pl?node_id=285091
-scott