Related link: http://blogs.datadirect.com/bin/mt-tb.cgi/40

Back in June, I talked about Microsoft’s public disclosures that details some their plans for Office 12 — finally we can look forward to XML file formats for the stable Office applications; Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

Since then, I’ve watched with interest as Open Document discussions have increased in volume. Foremost in their opinions include bloggers such as Jonathan Schwartz, COO of Sun; David Berlind from the ZDNET Tech Blog portal; and let’s not forget the ever growing community behind OpenOffice.org

To add spice to the interesting recipe, mix in the very public moves made by Commonwealth of Massachusetts to adopt Open Document as their standard file formats. Add some furious speculation as to what the recent Sun-Google alignment really means and then quickly serve up a full scale debate on whether or not we are on the cusp on a new revolution.

Let me try and cut through what I think is likely to emerge as the difference between reality and (to some degree) spin. First some key facts:

  • Google has successfully executed around the AJAX model giving a compelling web experience for email, maps and more recently blogs.

  • Open Office 2.0 recently shipped for general release. If you’ve not tried it, it is worth a look as the 2.0 version is a vast improvement on earlier versions.
  • Sun and Google have announced a broad technology partnership.
  • Open Document is seeing traction and serious consideration from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

Now let’s look at the evidence before us. First let me reiterate this quote from Jonathan Schwartz blog:

    “Could these apps I mention, above, be enhanced with better network connectivity, more collaboration, and better integration into your daily life? Absolutely…..So if you want to know what the future portends for OpenOffice.org, that’s a fine place to start (and AJAX will likely play a role).”

In this case I agree with David Berlind of ZDNET. The true meaning here is in what Schwartz omits. Large companies like Sun and Google always have an eye out for technologies that trigger something magical (the halo-like effect.) The trick is do it in such a way that developers will happily invest hours of their time with this technology and innovate freely around it.

If Google and Sun come up with something really compelling, I am very excited by the prospects, but I think it is important to add one note of caution; Microsoft will work feverishly to protect its golden Microsoft Office franchise. While we can look forward to XML formatted office documents, history has shown us that Microsoft is unlikely to rely entirely on spurring developer activity. They have the advantage of an estimated 95% market share.

From my perspective opportunities abound for technologies like XQuery to become integral parts of engines that integrate a distributed XML and relational data sources beneath an AJAXified Open Office front end. The introduction of Microsoft’s Office 12 formats presents similar opportunities.

From a developers stand-point it will be important to understand how to participate in the different strategies as they emerge. Should you opt for the halo-effect followed by the underdogs (Google/Sun) who seek to establish mindshare for Office applications? Or should you work with the incumbent (Microsoft) who will more than likely follow the upgrade route, incorporating less inclusive developer approaches that ensure their continued dominance.

Ladies and gentlemen, please place your bets.