With keynote speeches by Jonathan Schwartz and Larry Augustin this morning, the Open Source Business Conference opened with a bang. Each in their own way, they offered predictions for the future of the software industry. Jonathan offered this prediction: “Every industry that touches the Internet will eventually see their products trending to free.” He used free cell phones as the example and used an analogy for GM theorizing how to offer free cars as the promise.
Larry offered up his prediction for the next wave of open source applications. He offered six trends that he observed from SugarCRM, Compiere, Asterisk, and Vista. To predict where the next wave of open source application explosion he offered the following patterns to look for:
- Traditionally a big expensive heavy application, long sales cycles, hard to implement and install
- Competitors are big, traditional, proprietary competition and use traditional enterprise sales cycle
- The open source project has a large, enthusiastic free user base
- The project has an enthusiastic developer ecosystem
- The vertical market represents a big enterprise market opportunity
- That market is currently under penetrated in the SMB sector
Although Jonathan’s prediction is a little to comprehend at this point, I’m positive that Larry’s is 100% right on the money.
The afternoon and evening are looking very SpikeSourcish, with Kim Polese’s keynote address and the SpikeSource Town Hall meeting with Ray Lane. In addition, the much awaited keynote address from Geoffrey Moore. So what are doing to celebrate, now that open source has crossed the chasm?
Any surprises other than SpikeSource?