Jeff Whatcott, Macromedia vice president of product management, is convinced a switch to a tiered licensing model will bring new developers into the Flex fold, a number that’s currently below 10,000.
“We’re very serious about getting a million developers using Flex to build RIAs on the Flash platform in the next three to five years,” he said.
Source - http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3554196. This statement was made back in October 2005. Similar statements have been made by Adobe in many more times in many more places.
Many would have read or heard this before.
Today we have between 3 and 4 million Java developers and we assume that this number grows to 5 to 6 million within the next three to five years. (Which itself is very optimistic, though Sun thinks they can grow the number to 10 million).
Now as per current estimates the number of Flex developers are still in thousands. Assuming that half of the 1 million developers that they claim they will have come from the set that are with Flash, ColdFusion, PHP or any other skill set, we still have half a million coming from the set of Java developers. Considering that the server side for Flex is Java, this even sounds logical. This implies that 1 in every 10 or at worst 1 in every 12 Java developers is learning Flex or already knows Flex today. What do you folks have to say about this?