I know I’m a little late to this party, but like all good VoIP bloggers I should point to and comment on Jeff Pulver’s annual predictions for the IP communications industry. (You can’t really run an “Emerging Telephony” site without paying attention to what Jeff is up to.) One thing I appreciate is that he doesn’t shy away from his previous guesses, he’s also written a follow-up on his 2005 predictions that takes a frank look at how well he did. Pretty good actually.
Some of Jeff’s predictions this year seem obvious and right on: broadband penetration will continue to grow in the U.S. but not fast enough to raise our global standing in this area, lobbyists and policy-makers will continue to try and hamper new technologies with outdated rules and regulations, and the major Internet players will increase their efforts to influence communications policy. The most intersting prediction to me on his list this year, and the one I’m least in agreement with, is that filmakers will start going “direct to the Net” in 2006 and we’ll start seeing TV shows and movies debuting on the Internet first. I agree this will happen, but I’m skeptical that we’ll see it really take off next year. I think there’s still significant user-experience improvements that will need to be realized before the film and TV industries embrace the net in this way.
In additon to his yearly industry predictions, Jeff also recently publishes an annual list of what he considers the top VoIP blogs. One of my goals is to make sure Emerging Telephony is on that list next year!