View Review Details
| Book: |
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Your Brain: The Missing Manual |
| Subject: |
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The Monty Hall problem |
| Date: |
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2008-07-09 06:11:10 |
| From: |
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Matthew
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Response to: Why I recommend this book
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The Monty Hall problem is a tricky one, because the solution seems so thoroughly counterintuitive. The short answer is that the final choice between two doors isn't a "simple probability problem" because the state of those doors (what's behind them) has been influenced by the host's prior decision, and the host's decision was not made randomly. But if you aren't convinced by the probability tree, try the game that's described in the book, and enjoy the chance to beat the pants off your friends two thirds of the time! (I know I did.) Or, for a more intense mathematical explanation, head to Wikipedia and search for "Monty Hall problem" or "Three Prisoners problem."
Incidentally, I didn't intend to give mathematicians a bad rap--during the Parade controversy a significant minority wrote in to express embarassment that so many of their colleagues had jumped to the wrong conclusion using their instincts, rather than take the time to work out the problem on paper.
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